Storm Prediction Center - Convective Outlooks
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Categorical Day1 Z Outlook
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
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Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Weather Forecast
Discussion
677
FXUS64 KOUN 111049
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
549 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 543 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
- Temperatures rebound today with dry conditions.
- Chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, especially
across northern Oklahoma.
- Hot, above-normal temperatures are expected for the weekend
into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible early this
morning across southeast Oklahoma on the western periphery of
isentropic ascent.
Otherwise, light and variable winds are ongoing this morning in
the wake of yesterdays cold front that is currently dissipating
(frontolysis). With the light winds, clearing skies, boundary
layer humidity near 100%, and yesterdays rainfall, some fog has
developed this morning. Fog will likely continue to develop--
especially across locations that received appreciable rainfall
yesterday (i.e., north central Oklahoma and south central
Oklahoma).
Abundant sunshine, a return to southerly winds, and the eastward
expansion of a low-level thermal ridge back into the Southern
Plains will result in a return to hotter weather this afternoon.
High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 80s (north
central Oklahoma) to the near 100 deg F (southwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas). These temperatures are 5 to 10 deg F above
normal for mid-September.
Mahale
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
The subtropical ridge moves eastward in tandem with a
strengthening low-level thermal ridge across the Southern Plains
for the upcoming weekend, which will generally result in hotter
weather Saturday and Sunday. Heat Advisories will likely be needed
both days with widespread triple digit heat indices likely.
Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are forecast to develop
across Central Plains both Friday night into Saturday morning and
Saturday night into Sunday morning. There is a chance the remnants
of one of these complexes may approach north central Oklahoma
Saturday morning around the northeast periphery of the subtropical
ridge. If this occurs, additional showers and thunderstorms may
develop Saturday afternoon along any remnant mesoscale features
(i.e., outflow boundary or mesoscale convective vortex [MCV]).
There is less of a chance a complex will move into the area Sunday
morning with the subtropical ridge overhead.
Mahale
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
The subtropical ridge will continue to move eastward toward the
southeast United States for next week. The Southern Plains will be
on the western periphery of the ridge with a strong low-level
thermal ridge remaining in place. As a result, above-normal
temperatures are likely with high temperatures in the 90s to mid
100s deg F. Probabilistic guidance indicates little temperature
spread through Wednesday, which indicates high confidence of
above-normal temperatures (e.g., the 10th percentile is above-
normal).
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible on Monday afternoon
with a strengthening surface pressure gradient resulting in
breezy southerly winds.
Northern and western Oklahoma will be close enough to south to
southwest flow aloft (on the periphery of the ridge), where there
will be occasional chances of showers and thunderstorms from
remnant convection or nearby frontal boundaries. Currently, the
highest chance of this occurring is around midweek (Tuesday and
Wednesday).
Mahale
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
MVFR/LIFR conditions have developed over relatively localized
portions of northern and western Oklahoma, following yesterday`s
rainfall with patchy fog into central and southern Oklahoma. We
expect ceilings and visibilities to lift quickly with the rising
sun this morning. Otherwise, relatively light/variable winds
become southerly by late morning for most terminals with gusts to
20 mph possible at KWWR/KCSM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 92 72 97 72 / 0 0 20 10
Hobart OK 98 74 103 74 / 10 0 10 0
Wichita Falls TX 100 74 104 75 / 10 0 0 0
Gage OK 96 71 101 71 / 10 0 10 10
Ponca City OK 89 69 93 69 / 0 20 40 20
Durant OK 96 73 100 74 / 20 0 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion
