Weather Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KOUN 300407
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1107 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A shortwave traveling within the 850-700 mb layer was observed
over eastern New Mexico this morning and will very slowly move
eastward across the TX panhandle this afternoon as the surface
trough centered in eastern Colorado begins to deepen slightly.
Surface winds will remain out of the south (west) and southeast
(central) and speeds will increase to 15-20 mph over northwest
into western Oklahoma overnight as the pressure gradient tightens.

Patchy fog is possible early tomorrow morning across parts of
southern and southeastern Oklahoma with the moisture advection.
Fog could also develop across western Oklahoma, though confidence
is less for this area.

During the day tomorrow, the mean 850-700mb trough hangs out in
the high plains as a potent upper trough crosses the north-central
plains tomorrow. In response, low-level warm air and moisture
advection increases and a dryline takes shapes once again over
the TX panhandle. The dryline will become positively-tilted
tomorrow afternoon with the northern extent reaching Woods/Alfalfa
Counties and the southern extent possibly advancing into
Hardeman/Foard Counties. Ahead of dryline, temperatures are
forecast to rise into to 80/90`s and 50/60`s, respectively, by
tomorrow afternoon. Skies should remain mostly clear until early
afternoon, at which point, some mid- and high-level clouds
develop.

The environment ahead of the dryline is expected to become
moderately to strongly unstable with MLCIN beginning to erode from
southwest to northeast ahead of the dryline by early afternoon.
Whether the CIN erodes over central Oklahoma is less certain, but
it appears possible. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
could develop ahead of the dryline tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Fat CAPE profiles and sufficient bulk shear indicate the potential
for large hail; inverted-V forecast soundings and high downdraft
CAPE indicate damaging wind gusts are also possible. The tornado
threat appears to be very low with weak 0-1 KM shear. Timing of
storm development appears to be mid-/late- afternoon for areas
generally near/west of Hwy 81 and evening for central Oklahoma.

In addition, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are
possible across a small portion of northwest Oklahoma tomorrow
afternoon.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The aforementioned dryline retreats back into the panhandle on
Tuesday night. A cold front approaching form the north could
bring storm chances to northern Oklahoma late Tuesday into
Wednesday morning, and guidance indicates this boundary should
stay north of our area when frontolysis occurs.

On Wednesday, mid-level flow shifts southwesterly as a shortwave
trough digs over the intermountain west. Breezy southerly winds
will continue as the surface trough remains in place. The dryline
doesn`t appear to make much of an eastward progression, but shower
and thunderstorm chances begin to increase on Wednesday due with
continue`d WAA. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms
ahead of the dryline.

The upper trough ejects into the north-central plains on Thursday
and pushes a cold front into our area. Showers and thunderstorms
are likely with the potential for some severe thunderstorms. Heavy
rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday could lead to the potential for
flash flooding. Shower/storm chances continue on Friday and into
the weekend.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

All terminals should remain under VFR conditions through the
forecast period. Surface winds will stay out of the southeast at
5-10 kts for tonight but will veer more southerly after 14Z
increasing to 15 kts with 20-30 kt gusts. Could see some
thunderstorms initiate after 00Z but probabilities are low enough
for only PROB30 groups at some of our terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  85  65  82 /   0  20  20  40
Hobart OK         59  90  62  84 /   0  20  20  40
Wichita Falls TX  61  87  65  84 /   0  20  30  30
Gage OK           57  93  60  90 /  10  10  10  30
Ponca City OK     56  87  62  84 /   0  20  50  50
Durant OK         59  84  65  83 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...68

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion