Weather Forecast Discussion

170
FXUS64 KOUN 270708
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
208 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- More widespread chance of rain returns late Thursday into Friday.

- Additional rain/storm chances Sunday into early next week

- Above normal temperatures continue.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Moderate rain across northwest OK continues to lift north of the
area with a trailing line of scattered rain showers across portions
of north-central into central OK. Expect any additional rainfall
amounts to be very light, generally under a tenth of an inch through
the morning. Decreasing clouds and drier conditions are expected by
this afternoon, though with the mid-level moisture plume remaining
over the area and some subtle warm air advection continuing,
can`t completely rule out a few isolated showers through tonight
(also hinted at in some of the CAM guidance).

Highs today will be mild once again, generally in the mid 70s for
most with readings near 80 closer to the Red River.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Mild conditions are forecast to continue into Wednesday and
Thursday as our area remains under broad southwest flow aloft. A
tightening pressure gradient will lead to breezier conditions,
especially Wednesday afternoon, with south winds gusting to near
25-30 mph across the northern half of the area. Southerly winds
and rising heights during this period will bring a slight warming
trend as well, with highs expected to return to the low 80s each
afternoon across much of the area.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A more active pattern is forecast for the long term period as
troughing over the western US helps direct tropical moisture from
Vance across the eastern Pacific northward over the southern Plains
by late Thursday into Friday. Even though it appears most of the
area can expect at least some rain (PoPs >60% Friday into Friday
night) ensemble guidance continues to favor southwest/western
portions of the area for the highest rainfall totals. Probabilities
for at least an inch of rain are currently around 50-70% across
southwest OK and western north TX but taper off to only about 10-20%
along and east of I-35. The wave is expected to exit to the
northeast early on Saturday, with drier conditions now expected
by Saturday afternoon and continue into Sunday.

Models then show an amplification of the western US trough as it
moves into the central US later Sunday into early next week. Details
remain unclear at this range but at the very least expect additional
rain chances to return to the area. Depending how the system evolves
will also have to watch for the potential for severe weather, heavy
rain, and/or high winds if the higher amplitude model solutions come
to fruition.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

The trough bringing rain to mainly northwest Oklahoma is moving a
bit faster than forecast. IFR to potentially LIFR conditions are
possible at KCSM and KWWR, with highest chances of LIFR at KCSM
during the early morning hours. Rain should exit our CWA early
Tuesday morning, based on latest trends. Although NBM has skies
clearing relatively quickly during the day, there are signs among
some short-term models that stratus hangs around much of the day.
As it stands, expect VFR conditions by as late as mid-day.
However, there is the potential for MVFR conditions to linger over
KWWR and KCSM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  61  80  63 /  30   0  10   0
Hobart OK         76  60  80  61 /  20  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  79  61  83  63 /  20   0  10   0
Gage OK           73  57  80  58 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     74  60  82  62 /  30  10  10   0
Durant OK         81  59  84  63 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...01

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion