Forecast Discussion
714 FXUS65 KTWC 070750 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1250 AM MST Tue Apr 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A departing weather system will result in slight chances for showers and thunderstorms in the White Mountains today, otherwise dry conditions will prevail today and continue for the remainder of the work week for all of southeast Arizona. High temperatures will warm to levels about 6 to 10 degrees above normal Wednesday through Friday. A weather system this weekend will result in gusty south to southwest winds along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. This system will bring in cooler temperatures with highs slightly below normal by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...A weather system will be departing the area this morning but still enough wrap around moisture for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms today across the White Mountains. Dry conditions will prevail elsewhere with sunshine returning as ridging starts building in from the west. This ridging will be the main driver of our weather through Thursday. Expect dry conditions through this period with highs 3 to 8 degrees above normal today, warming to around 6 to 10 degrees above normal Wednesday and Thursday. A more active weather period is expected this weekend as troughiness moves into the Desert Southwest. Initially, expect southwest flow to increase on Friday with breezes ticking up along with some increased clouds. Temperatures Friday will still remain well above normal. Ensembles are focusing on Saturday into Sunday for this next system to traverse across the region as a closed low Friday off the California coast opens up and ejects east to northeast across Arizona. Still some minor differences in the timing but the focus is trending towards later Saturday into Sunday morning for the trough axis to move across the region. Expect breezy to locally windy south to southwesterly afternoon winds this weekend along with a chance (30%-50%) of showers and a few thunderstorms. Another trough will quickly be on the heels of this first system around Monday but that system is trending slightly north of the first system. Confidence is high that temperatures will drop down to levels near or slightly below normal by Sunday and Monday in this pattern. && .AVIATION... Valid through 08/12Z. SCT-BKN low clouds 8-12k ft AGL BKN-OVC mid-level clouds AOA 15-20k ft AGL through 07/03Z with a slight chance (10-20%) for ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA. Cloud cover will begin to diminish from west to east becoming SKC by 07/12z. SFC winds ELY/SELY 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts into the early afternoon, switching over to SWLY 10-15 kts (from west to east). Winds become light and less than 10 kts overnight, becoming NWLY 10-15 kts Tuesday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms today in the White Mountains, otherwise dry conditions prevail today and continue area-wide through the work week. Winds this week will follow diurnal trends with typical afternoon breezes. A weather system this weekend will result in increased south to southwest winds, along with precipitation chances. The combination of the gusty winds and low relative humidity may result in elevated fire weather concerns this weekend, though an increase in moisture may mitigate critical RH values. This is something we`ll be monitoring through the course of the week. Meanwhile, minimum RH values 10 to 20 percent in the valleys and 20 to 40 percent in the mountains today, lowering back down to the high single digits to teens areawide Wednesday through Friday. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson
NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion