Forecast Discussion
347 FXUS65 KTWC 022125 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 225 PM MST Thu Apr 2 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will be gradually warming up into this weekend. Afternoon winds will be breezy at times. A minor moisture increase over the weekend may lead to a slight chance of mainly mountain showers Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Warmer today versus yesterday with plenty of high clouds passing through which will be around overnight. Friday through Sunday: Highs up to 3 degrees warmer Friday versus today then 3 to 5 degrees warmer from Tucson west on Saturday. The exception on Saturday will be east of Tucson where highs will see little change from Friday thanks to low level flow turning east-southeast ushering in some slightly cooler air. Some limited moisture return to areas east of Tucson on Saturday leading to partly cloudy conditions. Highs Sunday from Tucson west slightly warmer versus Saturday with little change east of Tucson. The moisture increase that started Saturday continues into Sunday leading to a low-end 10-20% chance for showers/possible thunderstorms mainly over the mountains from Tucson east. Days 4 thru 7 (Mon Apr 6 to Thu Apr 9) Mid-level moisture remains over the area Monday and Tuesday leading to a low-end 10-20% chance of showers/possible t-storms mainly over the mountains east of Tucson. Moisture scours out a bit Wednesday and Thursday but enough remaining over the White mountains for a 10% chance of light showers both days. High temperatures during this period will run about 3 to 10 degrees above normal. The forecast provided by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) for this period, using the NBM as a baseline, looks OK at this time. 8-14 day outlooks (April 10-16) Temperature: Leaning above normal (46-48%) Precipitation: Leaning above normal (33-37%) && .AVIATION...Valid through 04/00Z. SCT-BKN cirrus clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru much of valid pd. SFC winds WLY 8-15 kts with ocnl gusts 20-25 thru 03/03z and then again after 03/18z. At other times SFC winds variable and terrain driven less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions for the rest of the work week. West winds today with occasional gusty afternoon winds through the weekend. Minimum RH values gradually lower into the teens to single digits by the weekend. Sunday morning breezy winds are forecast for areas northeast of Tucson, especially in the Gila River Valley with sustained southeast winds of 20 to 25 mph gusting 35 to 40 mph. Ensembles show mid-level moisture returning to areas east of Tucson Sunday into Tuesday resulting in a low-end 10-20% chance for light showers and less than 10% chance for a thunderstorm. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson
NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion